Publications & Discussion Papers

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Climate Econometrics Publications

ebm_web"Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming"

Pretis, Felix, Moritz Schwarz, Kevin Tang, Karsten Haustein, and Myles R Allen, 2017. [Pre-print accepted version available here]

Accepted for publication in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. DOI 10.1098/rsta.2016.0460.
working_webAn independent record of large volcanic events over the past millennium from reconstructed summer temperatures

Schneider, Lea. Smerdon, E, Jason. Pretis, Felix. Hartl-Meier, Claudia. and Jan Esper, 2017. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a1b.

Oxford Martin School news on the paper.
ebm_webCarbon Dioxide Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios

Pretis, Felix, and Roser, Max, 2017, Energy, in press. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.119

Available online here.
Earlier version also available as Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 810, here.
Oxford University Science Blog on the paper: here.
ebm_webEvaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations

Hendry, David, F. and Martinez, Andrew, B. (2017) International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here.
pnasSpatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

Robert K. Kaufmann, Michael L. Mann, Sucharita Gopal, Jackie A. Liederman, Peter D. Howe, Felix Pretis, Xiaojing Tang, and Michelle Gilmore (2016) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Available online here.
Oxford Martin School News on the study here.
paleoAll Change! The Implications of Non-stationarity for Empirical Modelling, Forecasting and Policy

David F. Hendry and Felix Pretis (2016), Oxford Martin Policy Paper.
Available online here.
paleoCoastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Svetlana Jevrejeva, Luke P. Jackson, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Aslak Grinsted, and John C. Moore (2016), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1605312113
Available online here.

The Conversation article on the research here.
paleoA probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and high-end scenarios.

Luke P. Jackson and Svetlana Jevrejeva. (2016), Global and Planetary Change. doi: 10.1111/joes.12148 Available online here.
paleoDetecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation.

Pretis, Felix., Schneider, Lea., Smerdon, Jason, E., and Hendry, David, F. (2016), Journal of Economic Surveys. doi: 10.1111/joes.12148 Available online here.

Working paper version available here.
paleoTesting competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach.

Kaufmann, Robert K., and Katarina Juselius (2016), Paleoceanography. doi: 10.1002/2014PA002767 Available online here.
2.coverReflections – Managing Uncertain Climates: Some Guidance for Policy Makers and Researchers.

Convery, Frank J. and Gernot Wagner, (2015), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 9 (2): 304-320. Available online here.
clim_change_borderTesting Competing Models of the Temperature Hiatus: Assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection

Pretis, Felix, and Mann, Michael, L. and Kaufmann, Robert K., 2015, Climatic Change, 131:4, 705-718, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1391-5. Available online here.
econometricsDetecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation

Castle Jennifer, L. Hendry, David F. Doornik, Jurgen. A., and Felix Pretis. 2015, Econometrics, 3, 240-264, doi:10.3390/econometrics03020240. Available online here.

Code for indicator saturation: isat in gets (in R), and SIS in Ox.
ngeo6_webClimate Science: Breaks in Trends

Pretis, Felix and Myles R. Allen. 2013, Nature Geoscience, 6, 992-993, doi:10.1038/ngeo2015. Available online here.
esdSome hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

Pretis, Felix, and David F. Hendry. 2013, Earth System Dynamics, 4, 375-384, doi:10.5194/esd-4-375-2013. Available online here.
handbook_ecc_webAnthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2

Hendry, David F., and Felix Pretis. 2013, Handbook on Energy and Climate Change. Ch. 12. R. Fouquet ed. Edward Elgar. Available online here.

Discussion Papers

ebm_webTesting for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter

Andrew B Martinez, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper , no. 17-17. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201717. Available online here.
ebm_webHow quickly can we adapt to change? An assessment of hurricane damage mitigation efforts using forecast uncertainty

Andrew B Martinez, Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 831. Available online here.
working_webUncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

Felix Pretis, Moritz Schwarz, Kevin Tang, Karsten Haustein, and Myles R Allen, 2017. Available on email request.

Accepted for publication in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A
climate econometricsExogeneity in Climate Econometrics

Pretis, Felix, 2017, Oxford Department of Economics Working Paper. Available online here.
ebm_webPolicy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure

Castle, Jennifer, Hendry, David, F. and Martinez, Andrew, B. 2016.
Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 809. Available online here.
ebm_webCarbon Dioxide Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios

Pretis, Felix, and Max Roser 2016, Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 810. Available online here.

Now published here: doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.119

ebm_webEconometric Models of Climate Systems: The equivalence of two-component energy balance models and cointegrated VARs

Pretis, Felix, 2017, Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 750. Latest version available online here.
ebm_webEvaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations

Hendry, David and Martinez, Andrew, 2016, Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 784. Available online here.
ebm_webGeneral-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets

Pretis, Felix, Reade, James, and Sucarrat, Genaro, 2016, Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 794. Available online here.