Sea Level Projections

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Sea-level projections through the 21st century for RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and High-end (RCP 8.5 with increased ice-sheet contribution) scenarios by aggregating spatial projections of individual sea-level components constructed in a probabilistic manner.

More information on the projections is available in Jevrejeva, Jackson, Riva, Grinsted, & Moore (2016) and Jackson & Jevrejeva (2016).

Please cite the dataset as:

Svetlana Jevrejeva, Luke P. Jackson, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Aslak Grinsted, and John C. Moore (2016), “Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1605312113

Luke P. Jackson and Svetlana Jevrejeva. (2016), “A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and high-end scenarios.”, Global and Planetary Change. doi: 10.1111/joes.12148

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How to use

Each zip file contains projections of sea-level change (metres) relative to 1986-2005. Global averages are provided in single files, while gridded data is provided in multiple files where each file covers one time slice. Files are tab-separated and a readme file (within each zip file) describes the content of each column.

Contact

For additional information, queries, and data (incl. RCP 2.6, variance of individual components, etc.) please contact the authors: Luke Jackson (luke.jackson@economics.ox.ac.uk).

Data

DescriptionRCP 2.6RCP 4.5RCP 8.5Upper Limit
Global AverageUpon request.totga_rcp45

Download: totga_rcp45.zip
totga_rcp85

Download: totga_rcp85.zip
totga_upper

Download: totga_upper.zip
Local Sea Level (1-degree grid, includes glacial isostatic adjustment [uplift])Upon request.tot_rcp45

Download: tot_rcp45.zip
tot_rcp85

Download: tot_rcp85.zip
tot_upper

Download: tot_upper.zip

Acknowledgements

Data has been generated as part of collaborative projects with the National Oceanography Centre and the EU Rises-AM Consortium.

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